Tuesday, April 22, 2008
"If you have an election lasting more than six weeks, consult a doctor..."
Ok, folks. Today is the Pennsylvania primary, the first major milestone in the 2008 presidential campaign since...well...the last one about 6 weeks ago.
The polls are relatively close, but it seems likely that Clinton will beat out Obama, by at least 5%, enough for her to proclaim a victory and justify continued participation in Indiana, North Carolina, and so on, all the way through to Puerto Rico and the convention.
However, pending some blatant finagling of delegates or a sudden rush of superdelegates, such a victory can not overcome the mathematical advantage in pledged delegates in the Obama camp.
Nevertheless, the media circus and the mudslinging into which this campaign has long since devolved will continue, perhaps until November.
I take great comfort in knowing, however, that the United States is not alone when it comes to flawed electoral processes. After all, things aren't going so well on that front in Zimbabwe either. For those keeping track, the Zimbabwean presidential elections were held almost a month ago on March 29. For the first time, the country's president Robert Mugabe seemed to be in danger of losing control over the government he has ruled since Zimbabwe declared independence in 1980. Accusations of vote fraud, ballot tampering, and intimidation have all been voiced by members of the opposition, and right now it seems highly unlikely that despite the economic and political mess Mugabe has created and his lack of popular support, he may be sticking around a little longer.
So now, I will ask one question, and leave the floor open for you to respond:
Who will drop out of their respective election first? Hillary Clinton or Robert Mugabe?
Personally, I'm betting on Mugabe...but we'll see how things go after the polls close in Pennsylvania.
Ok, folks. Today is the Pennsylvania primary, the first major milestone in the 2008 presidential campaign since...well...the last one about 6 weeks ago.
The polls are relatively close, but it seems likely that Clinton will beat out Obama, by at least 5%, enough for her to proclaim a victory and justify continued participation in Indiana, North Carolina, and so on, all the way through to Puerto Rico and the convention.
However, pending some blatant finagling of delegates or a sudden rush of superdelegates, such a victory can not overcome the mathematical advantage in pledged delegates in the Obama camp.
Nevertheless, the media circus and the mudslinging into which this campaign has long since devolved will continue, perhaps until November.
I take great comfort in knowing, however, that the United States is not alone when it comes to flawed electoral processes. After all, things aren't going so well on that front in Zimbabwe either. For those keeping track, the Zimbabwean presidential elections were held almost a month ago on March 29. For the first time, the country's president Robert Mugabe seemed to be in danger of losing control over the government he has ruled since Zimbabwe declared independence in 1980. Accusations of vote fraud, ballot tampering, and intimidation have all been voiced by members of the opposition, and right now it seems highly unlikely that despite the economic and political mess Mugabe has created and his lack of popular support, he may be sticking around a little longer.
So now, I will ask one question, and leave the floor open for you to respond:
Who will drop out of their respective election first? Hillary Clinton or Robert Mugabe?
Personally, I'm betting on Mugabe...but we'll see how things go after the polls close in Pennsylvania.
Comments:
I wish I could disagre with your prediction, but Hillary's in through the last primary in June at least. Of course, Mugabe may never get around to dropping out.
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