Tales of the Invisible Ben

Re: Texas... Hillary didn't exactly win Texas. The Texas process is a bit unusual: first the primary, then the caucus. Hillary won the primary by about the same percentage that Obama won the caucus, with the end result being that Obama actually won one delegate more than Hillary in Texas. However, the media doesn't really understand how Texas works, so it was a lot easier to just say "Hillary wins" and report that than to actually learn the process and report on it accurately.

I also rather enjoy that Hillary claims that only she can win the big blue states (the fact that she specifies blue on occasion is laughable). Big blue states will, by definition, go blue in the general election because that's how they got the name. Short of a landslide Republican victory, I can't foresee Massachusetts and California going red.

Anyway... since my man Edwards dropped out, it's been interesting to watch the primaries as a disinterested observer... I get to laugh at the stupid shit both camps say.
 

This analysis is intended to counteract the Hillary camp's arguments that she wins big states, and that caucuses are undemocratic. So, I have acceded some of their points to neutralize them. Ie, Hillary did win the Texas primary, so I put that as a win in her column. If I gave it to Barack, some Hillary supporter would quibble with that aspect and ignore my larger point. I do understand the system for awarding delegates.
 

I wasn't intending to suggest you didn't know what you were talking about... if it came out like that, all I can say is "oops... sorry." I got into a groove on my irritation with the media narrative more than anything and just ran with it.

If I'd had any real quibbles with your analysis, I would've made them. I actually think it's a really good look at things. And believe me, I'm not out there to defend either Obama or Hillary (except if things get ridiculous) because I find them both disappointing in a lot of ways.
 

No worries :) I am completely annoyed by how the media and now voters always repeat Hillary's whole 35 years of experience line as if it were true, while ignoring that Barack has actually spent way more time in elective office. And of course, the idea that Barack would lose MA is ridiculous. I am tired of hearing that Hillary is preferred by Real Democrats, as if we didn't need to cast a wide net in the general.

Can I ask, why haven't you drunk the Barack kool-aid like I (and I think Ben) have?
 

There were two main things I liked about John Edwards: he talked about poverty, which Obama and Hillary pretended didn't exist (and then only acknowledged its existence for several days after Edwards suspended his campaign), and his healthcare plan (which Hillary stole a week or a month after he posted it to his website). I think Obama's wrong about health care mandates, and he certainly doesn't talk about mandates in an honest manner (he claimed Hillary's plan would require garnishing wages if people didn't sign up on their own, which is completely false).

I think Obama gives good speeches... from what I've heard, without trying to do a real analysis, it's like he's doing the MLK/Malcolm X style of speech, only toned down so that white audiences aren't scared by his cadences and changes in volume/tone. I also think he intentionally leaves a lot of details out of his speeches, which is both good and bad. It's good, because it lets him focus on broader concepts rather than on laundry lists of policy proposals which appeal, in the end, to nobody. However, I don't like that one then has to go to his website to get any sense of what he really means. Of course, it also makes it easy to think Obama's saying what you want him to say. I'm not saying there's no substance, because he clearly has specific ideas as well as big, vague ideas (I don't think he's an empty suit).

I'm not entirely convinced by his post-partisan idea. From a practical perspective, it sounds like the kind of thing which is more likely to result in some incredibly painful compromises where Obama and the Democrats cave more than the Republicans (kind of the way the Democrats have been since 2006 without the Presidency... hell, since 2000).

But... I will admit, Obama's got the intangibles, as they say in sports. He's personally appealing and energetic, and he seems to be raising others to his level of play rather than lowering himself to theirs. I prefer Obama to Hillary, in part because she's decided on a scorched earth plan for the primary as well as an ingrained distrust of anything Establishment.
But, at the end of the day, I think they'd both be fine presidents and fine general electioneers, which are the things I think the party needs the most, and that's why I haven't become a hardcore Obama-ite.
 

I actually understand and agree with most of that. I respected Edwards a great deal for his poverty and health care plans, though I am tired of the anti-trade rhetoric.

I like Hillary too, she has a lot of good policy specifics. However, I really don't like the idea of her being president. I just don't think she would be effective. I also am not sure that as the nominee, she could win, and damn it we need to win. And there is no way she gets this nomination without destroying the party. I honestly am really glad she is in the Senate. With her as the legislator spearheading Obama's health care legislation, something may actually get through. I really don't think he should name her VP or a cabinet post, he needs a Senate ally.

But I digress. I admit that a lot of the reasons I like Obama aren't substantive or proven, but he is surrounding himself with good people, he is more likely to win, I think having seen life in inner city Chicago he might care more about poverty than he lets on, and I just really want for my students and kids like them to see a black president. White women aren't as a group always on the brink of financial ruin or in jail. Its weird to say, but I think the black community needs this more than women do.

(BTW, Ben is thrilled that we are putting so many comments on this blog)
 

I think you're probably right that the black community is more in need of having a good role model/visibly successful member than the female community (funny how you can follow up race with the word "community" but not gender...) I think there's more of a problem of racism in America than sexism. Frankly, one of the greatest historical events I can dream of living through is America electing a black President, given America's history (and I mean history from pre-founding of the nation on up through the Civil War, the Civil Rights movement and right now, when minorities are unofficially disenfranchised anywhere their votes might matter).

Also, assuming things go through PA, which I think looks likely, it would be cool to see PA buck the expectations and go for Obama... though I have a hard time seeing the middle of the state go for him.
 

(since nobody goes to my blog anymore, including, quite often, me, I'm enjoying using Ben's comments as a place to make political posts that stand a chance of actually being responded to).
 

Dear God Substitute I hope Obama wins PA! If he does, I really think this will be over. It would just become too much of an uphill climb for Hillary because it would destroy most of her reasons for still running. If Obama wins something that is a big-swing-closed-primary, with his clear delegate lead he would have it sewn up. I guess I should stop commenting on blogs and go register some voters. If only it weren't after 11.